12 Comments
Oct 26, 2023Liked by Paper Alfa

Thanks. Helpful overview for sure. My conclusion, for whatever it’s worth, is that it’s still too early for me to allocate anything to bonds.

So my question is, how correlated are the REITs to something like the five-year notes or the 10 year bonds?

Since I’m 65, and for the first time in my life, have begun a very slow DCA process into a couple of higher quality Reits that have excellent balance sheets and are not exposed to the Office sector. REITS are obviously down significantly and some of these high qualitys are now yielding more than any of the Treasuries.

Reading your post is giving me pause for thought about possibly pausing my process.

Any thoughts or suggestions would be appreciated.

Expand full comment
Nov 29, 2023Liked by Paper Alfa

Thank you for taking the time to answer my complex question. It's always good to read different thoughts; otherwise, there's a risk of waking up in an echo chamber where you only hear what you want to hear. I read your articles, but I have to admit that I don't understand everything. That's not because of you, but more due to the fact that my knowledge of macroeconomics is limited. The reason for my question is simple: I'm holding a larger short position on the DAX. :-)) Best regards, Daniel

Expand full comment
Nov 28, 2023Liked by Paper Alfa

Now, the big question arises, and I'd greatly appreciate a straightforward answer that's easy to grasp. Has the recession already been factored into the market, or are we still in the midst of a significant downturn in the indices? If possible, could you also explain the reasons behind it, as if I were still a puppy..-)) As I sense that the FTSE and DAX are following the lead of their larger counterparts, the question of differences between the US and Europe may be redundant

Expand full comment
Nov 28, 2023Liked by Paper Alfa

If the bond price stabilizes or even rises, I anticipate significant support for gold.

Expand full comment