Waiting for April Fools + 1
March 31, 2025
With quarter end now firmly behind us, we and everyone else are awaiting April 2nd and with it the potential repercussions. A seismic event for financial markets or just another one of those unclear presidential communications where everything is still very much up to interpretation? I am not sure financial markets want to grapple with continued uncertainty and are pricing in enough event risk premia in case we are indeed presented with a historical event. I wrote about it in ATW.
I have read so many permutations of tariff-related impacts and their estimated costs to growth and inflation that my mind is spinning. Instead, let’s ask the broad question: What does this all signify, and what are the investment implications?
In last Friday’s Chart Book I presented my global macro view and with it the broad investment implications. I call this the blueprint, which I will expand over time. You will find the investment summary bullet points behind the paywall further below.
Friday Chart Book
What’s going on? US stocks have tried a bounce and failed at the 20 ema line (subscribers were told of this possible fail in the Mid-Week Update), while US 30-year Treasury yields are back close to levels where equities broke down in February. I am writing this on Thursday close.
Regardless of this event, the circumstances and motion that have brought it to this point will reverberate for months and possibly years to come. It’s the potential rupture of the US from the present economic and political world order. It sounds dramatic, I know, but it’s true. There is change, and where there is change, capital markets and its agents and decision makers will follow. To use the Mandalorian mantra, “This is the Way.”
Let’s explore and also hear Macro D’s vision of April 2nd.