Top 10 Articles

By Popular Demand

Dec 28, 2023

As the end of the year draws closer, we are all being bombarded with the best of 2023 lists across all domains and interests. As such, I present you with the most popular articles in 2023.

I hope you enjoy reading or re-reading them.

1 - Paper Alfa’s 2024

Paper Alfa's 2024

Paper Alfa

December 26, 2023

Another trip around the sun has almost been completed. I truly hope that it has been a successful year for you and your loved ones. No year is easy. Remember last year, as suppressed financial assets and disappointing returns made for a sombre mood. This also impacted outlooks for the new year, where

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2 - On Technical Analysis …

On Technical Analysis ...

Paper Alfa

August 6, 2023

If you have been a follower, you will know that I do intensively look at technical patterns when determining likely market moves. I have to admit that I used to laugh at technical analysis (TA) in my earlier years. I was a more fundamental investor back then, dismissive of behavioural patterns that might repeat.

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3 - On Edge

On Edge

Paper Alfa

November 4, 2022

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” - Sun Zsu

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4 - Emerging Markets Fixed Income

Emerging Market Fixed Income

Paper Alfa

December 5, 2023

The predominant discussion point when talking about fixed income is always related to developed market fixed-income securities. I am also only writing and commenting about the US, Europe/UK and Japan. That makes sense as it’s usually the heartbeat of global macro, with a particular interest in the US market, which links many global bond markets together.

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5 - Model Guide

The Model Guide

Paper Alfa

October 31, 2023

A warm welcome to all new subscribers and, of course, to my existing readers. I know that some of you have been eagerly awaiting a more detailed guide and description of my models. Well, here it is. This guide will give you a good manual on how to read my charts, which will hopefully help you form your own views. I am also planning to produce a

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6 - Macro Book / Idea Generation

The Macro Book

Paper Alfa

September 20, 2023

As announced last week, I will publish a series of articles about PAMB (Paper Alfa Macro Book). This will encompass all relevant elements of a full investment process. We will cover the following important stages. Idea Generation Idea Structuring Risk / Sizing

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7 - A Simple Bond Allocation Model v1

A Simple Bond Allocation Model v1

Paper Alfa

August 31, 2023

I have been looking for various ways to build strategic asset allocation models over the years, including bond models. The goal is to have a relatively simplistic rule set out and try to backtest it as far as possible. This post is part of a series where I present some models and strategies that I have found to be useful.

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8 - En Route to Recession #1

En Route to Recession #1

Paper Alfa

August 29, 2023

As we are entering a heightened period of late-cycle dynamics, it is worth keeping an eye on the most prevalent and useful indicators when assessing the path and likely timing of a recession. Admittedly, I am not a massive fan of recession predicting; in fact, I don’t think any forecasting is really warranted. All we are trying to do is to make a

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9 - On Luck

On Luck ...

Paper Alfa

March 9, 2023

As I’m lying in my bed with a nasty cold this week, what better topic to tackle than luck itself? I feel sorry for myself. Unlucky in many ways, as I had great plans for this week. My taste buds are gone, so no wine and foodie tweets either. My wife would tell you what a bad patient I can be when I am not feeling my perkiest. So I am sitting up in bed, …

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10 - Has the Fed tightened too far?

Has the Fed tightened too far?

Paper Alfa

May 1, 2023

Monetary policy allegedly works in lags. This is usually meant to be around 18 months on average. Yes, those long and variable lags make policy setting difficult. Imagine trying to adjust your car speed for a bend in the road which you can not see yet.

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Top 10 Articles

By Popular Demand

1 - Paper Alfa’s 2024

Paper Alfa's 2024

2 - On Technical Analysis …

On Technical Analysis ...

3 - On Edge

On Edge

4 - Emerging Markets Fixed Income

Emerging Market Fixed Income

5 - Model Guide

The Model Guide

6 - Macro Book / Idea Generation

The Macro Book

7 - A Simple Bond Allocation Model v1

A Simple Bond Allocation Model v1

8 - En Route to Recession #1

En Route to Recession #1

9 - On Luck

On Luck ...

10 - Has the Fed tightened too far?

Has the Fed tightened too far?

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