Top 10 Articles
By Popular Demand
As the end of the year draws closer, we are all being bombarded with the best of 2023 lists across all domains and interests. As such, I present you with the most popular articles in 2023.
I hope you enjoy reading or re-reading them.
1 - Paper Alfa’s 2024
Paper Alfa's 2024
Another trip around the sun has almost been completed. I truly hope that it has been a successful year for you and your loved ones. No year is easy. Remember last year, as suppressed financial assets and disappointing returns made for a sombre mood. This also impacted outlooks for the new year, where
2 - On Technical Analysis …
On Technical Analysis ...
If you have been a follower, you will know that I do intensively look at technical patterns when determining likely market moves. I have to admit that I used to laugh at technical analysis (TA) in my earlier years. I was a more fundamental investor back then, dismissive of behavioural patterns that might repeat.
3 - On Edge
On Edge
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” - Sun Zsu
4 - Emerging Markets Fixed Income
Emerging Market Fixed Income
The predominant discussion point when talking about fixed income is always related to developed market fixed-income securities. I am also only writing and commenting about the US, Europe/UK and Japan. That makes sense as it’s usually the heartbeat of global macro, with a particular interest in the US market, which links many global bond markets together.
5 - Model Guide
The Model Guide
A warm welcome to all new subscribers and, of course, to my existing readers. I know that some of you have been eagerly awaiting a more detailed guide and description of my models. Well, here it is. This guide will give you a good manual on how to read my charts, which will hopefully help you form your own views. I am also planning to produce a
6 - Macro Book / Idea Generation
The Macro Book
As announced last week, I will publish a series of articles about PAMB (Paper Alfa Macro Book). This will encompass all relevant elements of a full investment process. We will cover the following important stages. Idea Generation Idea Structuring Risk / Sizing
7 - A Simple Bond Allocation Model v1
A Simple Bond Allocation Model v1
I have been looking for various ways to build strategic asset allocation models over the years, including bond models. The goal is to have a relatively simplistic rule set out and try to backtest it as far as possible. This post is part of a series where I present some models and strategies that I have found to be useful.
8 - En Route to Recession #1
En Route to Recession #1
As we are entering a heightened period of late-cycle dynamics, it is worth keeping an eye on the most prevalent and useful indicators when assessing the path and likely timing of a recession. Admittedly, I am not a massive fan of recession predicting; in fact, I don’t think any forecasting is really warranted. All we are trying to do is to make a
9 - On Luck
On Luck ...
As I’m lying in my bed with a nasty cold this week, what better topic to tackle than luck itself? I feel sorry for myself. Unlucky in many ways, as I had great plans for this week. My taste buds are gone, so no wine and foodie tweets either. My wife would tell you what a bad patient I can be when I am not feeling my perkiest. So I am sitting up in bed, …
10 - Has the Fed tightened too far?
Has the Fed tightened too far?
Monetary policy allegedly works in lags. This is usually meant to be around 18 months on average. Yes, those long and variable lags make policy setting difficult. Imagine trying to adjust your car speed for a bend in the road which you can not see yet.