En Route to Recession #1

Are we there yet?

As we are entering a heightened period of late-cycle dynamics, it is worth keeping an eye on the most prevalent and useful indicators when assessing the path and likely timing of a recession. Admittedly, I am not a massive fan of recession predicting; in fact, I don’t think any forecasting is really warranted. All we are trying to do is to make a probabilistic assessment of future scenarios and look at what’s on offer in markets in order to wager our bets. Forecasting is a mug’s game. Nevertheless, I think it is important to put a few pointers out, which I hope will be a good exercise when trying to ascertain where we are on the road to recession.

Let’s dig in.