September Review

First Quarter Completed

Paper Alfa has successfully finished its first quarter. If this were a quarterly investor call, I’d be honestly delighted. The pack has continuously grown, and we have now passed the 1,000 subscriber mark comfortably while maintaining a healthy growth rate. This is all thanks to you, my dear reader.

It is astonishing to think that this site has come that far without much of a marketing push. My personal view is that a good product typically sells itself by word of mouth and recommendations. I want to thank all of you who have supported and spread the word; it’s very much appreciated.

As a reminder, I have a generous referral programme where you can get 3, 6 or 12 months of free full content if you get people on board.

This month, I have managed to publish more than 20 posts. I have started the long-awaited series of the Paper Alfa Macro Book, where we will go through an entire investment process and then ultimately build and manage a portfolio of trade ideas. The first post was dedicated to idea generation and gave you a list of 15 independent resources I personally use when scanning for new ideas or information. I hope that was useful. I will continue ploughing away with many more posts and useful tools to come.

I have also posted the second iteration of a simple bond allocation model that anyone can follow and implement. This is after v1, which in itself has already shown tremendous results. Needless to say, both are still very much invested in T-Bills.

As we approach choppier waters, I have also posted a first piece on “En Route to Recession”, a pretty timely piece just as our esteemed street economists have moved in to predict a soft landing. Data is slowly deteriorating, and we are witnessing a potentially momentous shift in markets just as central banks have or are about to stop hiking rates. As mentioned in numerous posts, this typically coincides with more, not less, volatility as it transcends from short-term rates into other asset classes. Stay tuned for more posts on that front.

Meanwhile, the weekly anchor posts of ATW and Friday’s Paper Charts continue to reveal what the momentum and reversal model tells us. Frankly, they have been on a great run, purely dissecting price action without the fluff and providing good Alfa. I will provide more information while I am also working on making additional models available, both for long-term and short-term investment horizons.

Education, as always, will continue to be one of the core elements of Paper Alfa’s offering. Stay tuned as more pieces will be dropped soon.

Keep in mind to set yourself up for a great Q4. As I wrote in my piece on goals, I am setting myself specific targets for what’s to come and what I want to achieve — no time for nonsense. Hope you’re set up and ready to roar.

That’s it as far as the first quarterly “investor” call goes. I am happy with how far we have come, but there is even more to conquer, and that’s giving me tons of excitement. Let’s attack the fourth quarter ferociously; as far as “guidance” is concerned, I expect a beat!

Your