Paper Alfa's 2026
4 years of positive performance, what's next?
And just like that, another year has passed. As promised, I discuss the 2026 buy-and-hold portfolio below. 2025 has been another stellar year, with the portfolio outperforming the SPX by around 7%, coming in at +23% YTD in USD terms. Note, this is as of Monday’s close, and I will publish the final number early in the new year. This is the fourth year of positive performance. Easy to forget that 2022 was a down year, yet my portfolio was up close to 20%.
For reference, below are the annual outlook and portfolio posts, starting with 2025.
Let’s now focus on how the 2026 portfolio is constructed to hold for the coming 365 days. What changes are in store, and what is the reason behind those modifications? The goal, once again, is to participate in capital appreciation in selected markets where risk/reward is favourable while avoiding large drawdowns. Outcomes, of course, are never guaranteed, but one can prepare.
As always, we don’t know what the main drivers in 2026 will be or which trade dominance will emerge throughout the year. This year, Gold & Silver were clearly consistent beneficiaries of whatever narrative was thrown at them. As such, a diversified portfolio of attractive assets is key to creating robustness.
Many of my thoughts going into the new year are in my recent post below, which is free to anyone. In addition, I will post my overall thoughts and asset classes in early January, which I hope subscribers will find helpful.
I’m wishing you all a fantastic year ahead!
Let’s now dig into the 2026 portfolio.
