Friday Paper Charts

July 14, 2023

Hello again, Bienvenue and happy Bastille Day to my French friends. What a great week this has been. As a little reminder, there were a few new articles popping up:

• How many macro opportunities are there in a typical year or month? I wrote an article with research from a friend of mine, which is giving evidence over the past 40 years.

• Another episode of my stories from the institutional past has also dropped. It’s about big ideas and the pitfalls of dogmatic thinking.

Similarly, there are a few articles in the pipe that will go live next week. One will be an educational guide to bond futures, while the other one will be a thought piece as to whether QE ironically dampened the effects of rate hikes as evidenced in stronger growth and lack of further cracks in the system being exposed. Watch out for those next week.

Quite a week we had. A nice reversal in rates played out as subscribers were alerted earlier this week. The seemingly cooling of inflation dynamics is what got people excited, both in risk and in bond space. With the US front-end leading the way on the curve, the USD started faltering fast.

This week has propelled markets into a new-found euphoria with hopes of a long-lasting goldilocks scenario. Now, let’s have a detailed look at how our charts and model are looking at things.