Mid-Week Update

Febrary 26, 2025

Here is a quick update from my side. We anticipated the regime shift last Friday and in last weekend’s Attack the Week (ATW). So far, so good, and the asset allocation model has captured that move well and performed this week so far. Read my thinking below if you haven’t done so.

Where from here? Slowdown fears have accelerated in the week so far. The crypto market has seen relatively large drawdowns, and equity indices have exhibited further losses. Bonds are the big beneficiaries in this market. Much-loved gold was also impacted by the risk asset and position unwind, which makes sense given that people are looking to bank some wins and reduce risks.

In any regime shift, bailing out on your trades early can be costly. If we are indeed slowing down, nervousness will mount, and markets can easily overshoot. If you are unsure, reducing risk is not your worst enemy. US payrolls are 10 days away, and there is going to be plenty of speculation on how much the DOGE impact will show in those numbers. I can’t wait for Wall Street economists to topple themselves in those estimates.

We have been right in our macro scenarios so far, and the models have helped us well in anticipating those momentum moves.

I have launched the intra-day model early this week. This is meant for those who actively trade during the day, and I hope it has been a valuable addition. All current subscribers should now have access.

Anyone interested in the models, ping me an email with your TV username. Note that only paying subscribers will be granted access. No exceptions. New subscribers will see a price increase.

Below is a quick update on a few charts. Please note that I will be on holiday next week and will, therefore, post less than usual. Macro D will be at hand to update you all on any new developments.

If I see anything interesting, I will likely be posting my thoughts to paying subscribers in the Substack Chat.