Friday Thoughts

Notes from the Road / Week in Review

I am travelling this weekend, so I will keep this brief here.

All eyes are on the Xi–Trump summit in Beijing, with the market hoping that a permanent resolution to the war in Iran is finally being tabled. Hope is cheap, though. Call me a sceptic, but I’ll believe it when we see results — and, more importantly, when the follow-through survives the first headline wobble.

On the macro front, we have the upcoming payroll report. I’m positioned for a stronger print, even if Treasuries have already done a decent bit of the heavy lifting on the sell-off.

Momentum in US rates remains bearish, as highlighted by our dashboard, which is gaining popularity. I don’t love leaning on any single read, but when the tape keeps telling you the same thing, it’s usually worth listening—if only to manage your own behaviour and avoid fighting ghosts.

In addition, Macro D has been busy on the Macro FX front, and we’ve published to Trade Corners this week — I suggest you read them in full.

Below the paywall, he’s reflecting on this week’s macro developments, tying the moves back to positioning and the bigger picture.

Have a great weekend ahead!