Friday Paper Charts

November 17, 2023

I am still travelling at the moment. I have posted a Mid-week update on all relevant charts and signals that have been triggered or that we should be alerted of. The models never sleep. They anticipated the turn in Equities, Rates & FX very well. I have also posted a lengthy Macro Book piece this week, which will give you a solid framework for selecting dominant macro ideas. I hope you found it useful.

Yesterday’s initial jobless and continuing claims both ticked higher, underlining softening labour market trends.

The Sahm rule comes into force when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises more than 0.5pp above its minimum in the last 12 months, which then stipulates that a recession follows. The 3-month unemployment rate average has risen 0.3pp from its 12-month low. Should the unemployment rate rise to 4.0% next month and remain there, the rule will trigger in early 2024.

Let’s now focus on the avalanche of charts coming your way. We have quite a few interesting set-ups coming through. Equities seem to be developing exhaustion markers, which is worth watching as we move into next week.

More than 100 charts are coming right up. Enjoy and have a blessed and relaxing weekend.