Friday Chart Book
New Year - New Macro / Thoughts on 2026 / 250+ Chart Pack Update
We are now firmly in the new year, and the YTD PnL’s have been reset to zero as we go again. It’s easy to feel overly good about last year, but it’s gone, and it doesn’t matter. Although I am proud of the previous year’s achievements, I cannot become overly attached to the results that are now embedded in our memories and track records.
As a reminder, the buy-and-hold 2025 portfolio returned 22.8% in 2025. Below, you can see the evolution of the performance, which resulted in more than a 2 Sharpe ratio.
We move forward. Accordingly, I shared my thoughts and portfolio for the coming year in a post on New Year’s Day.
Paper Alfa's 2026
And just like that, another year has passed. As promised, I discuss the 2026 buy-and-hold portfolio below. 2025 has been another stellar year, with the portfolio outperforming the SPX by around 7%, coming in at +23% YTD in USD terms. Note, this is as of Monday’s close, and I will publish the final number early in the new year. This is the fourth year of positive performance. Easy to forget that 2022 was a down year, yet my
I feel uneasy about the coming 12 months. There is too much at stake for this year, while markets are pricing in little in the forward and volatility space. Central banks are perceived to be nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycles, except in the US, where we are still pricing slightly more than 2 cuts, with the SFRZ6 straddle showing 50 bps, indicating a distribution between 0 and 100 bps for the year ahead. Fair, you might think, but by guess is that we will see larger swings in either direction.
Elsewhere, risk markets have had a strong run, and reading some market outlooks indicates that nearly everyone expects this to continue — a natural, anchoring behaviour that is almost guaranteed to fail. “Bubble” risks are still being mentioned, yet no one is seriously concerned, and certainly not positioned for a fallout if it bursts. It’s always important to remember that when conviction runs high, the margin for error narrows.
I am keeping an open mind this year, focusing less on tail risks in isolation and more on conditional probabilities: the likelihood that specific events gain traction once underlying economic, political, or societal conditions are in place. Markets rarely reprice because of shocks alone; they reprice when shocks collide with fragility.
Economic constraints, rising political intervention, and growing social pressures suggest a landscape where regime shifts can emerge quickly and non-linearly. In this environment, precision forecasts matter less than adaptability and asymmetry.
A friendly reminder that Paper Alfa offers much more than just commentary. We have trading models based on my technical approach to markets. In addition, we have an asset allocation model that dynamically allocates between bonds and equities every week. I have a few more ideas brewing, but the alfa, education and thought pieces will continue in full force this year.
A reminder that you can now also use my trading models in TradingView scripts, which I made available for subscribers to use on their charts. This is not free and incurs an additional cost. These are my momentum, reversal and intra-day models I am often referencing. If you are interested, ping me an email with your TV username. Note that only paying subscribers will be granted access. No exceptions.
Let’s now read some of my friend Macro D’s, who is generously using his busy time to share his detailed thoughts and analysis on central banks and his view on 2026 before we go through the entire chart book, comprising 250+ charts of the whole macro universe (Equity Index and single names, Sector ETFs, Rates, Curves, FX, Commodities and Crypto).
Have a blessed weekend, and again, my best wishes for 2026!