Friday Chart Book

Macro Observation Deck / Week in Review / 250+ Chart Updates

A warm welcome to the recent influx of new subscribers. As usual, the Friday Chart Book offers some thoughts from me in terms of what the week has offered and what has caught my eye, with my friend Macro D, a deep-thinking macro investor, sharing his thoughts behind the paywall, which is then followed by an avalanche of charts, encompassing the entire global macro universe, from rates and curves to FX pairs and Crypto. Those charts are based on my models, which I have developed over the years and have proven invaluable to my process.

You can use my trading models in TradingView scripts, which I made available for subscribers to use on their charts. This is not free and incurs an additional cost. These are my momentum, reversal and intra-day models I am often referencing. If you are interested, ping me an email with your TV username. Note that only paying subscribers will be granted access. No exceptions.

The week has featured an in-depth analysis by Macro D and his latest cohort of Macro FX trades for February, after a very successful trading start to the year. You can find the latest instalment below.

Let’s now dig through thoughts from the observation deck. The market is shifting and sending us signals. Bonds are breaking out, with cyclical sectors now under pressure as well. I think risk assets are setting up for a consolidation lower. The Paper Alfa 2026 buy-and-hold portfolio, which encompasses structural views, is up 8% in USD terms. This is as of close on Thursday, which saw somewhat dramatic moves.

Much of the recent setback stems from fears that AI will kill entire business models. This is nothing new. And there is, of course, some truth to that.

Artificial intelligence is once again being framed as different. Different in speed. Different in scale. Different in consequence.

But markets have seen this movie before.

Every major technological rupture creates winners and losers — and every time, investors initially respond the same way: indiscriminately hunting for what might be broken. In that process, they rarely stop at the losers. They sell the future winners, too.

AI will disrupt labour, compress margins in some industries, and hollow out entire business models. That part is unavoidable. What is less discussed — and far more interesting — is what cannot be replaced, and what quietly becomes more valuable as a result.

While markets are busy liquidating perceived casualties, tremendous opportunities are forming on the other side of the trade.

I will explore this in more detail in an upcoming thought piece.

For now, let’s get straight to business.