Really enjoyed this — especially the “breach” framing and the idea that macro traders are doing modern divination: reading intent, not just prints. That said, I’m cautious about the “shorter horizon + bigger size” translation; in a fat-tail regime, survival can matter more than conviction.
How are you thinking about convexity here — i.e., paying for protection earlier, or structuring trades so you’re long volatility rather than just long direction?
Don’t know what’s been suppressing IV, but I appreciate the article—really helpful framing. Also: your ‘college roommate’ analogy… you just described my old roommate 😂
Really enjoyed this — especially the “breach” framing and the idea that macro traders are doing modern divination: reading intent, not just prints. That said, I’m cautious about the “shorter horizon + bigger size” translation; in a fat-tail regime, survival can matter more than conviction.
How are you thinking about convexity here — i.e., paying for protection earlier, or structuring trades so you’re long volatility rather than just long direction?
Implied vol across macro is still very low, owning gamma is cheap so leveraging more aggressive shorter term trades makes perfect sense.
Don’t know what’s been suppressing IV, but I appreciate the article—really helpful framing. Also: your ‘college roommate’ analogy… you just described my old roommate 😂
ha glad it brings back memories!