Trade Corner
January: New Year, New Macro FX Trades
by Macro D
This first Trader Corner of the year isn’t a mere catalogue of intentions and commercial attempts. Instead, it attempts to put down on paper what the “All Gates, All Barbarians” series targeted: a new world order. Therefore, avoiding buying the US dollar (from a long-term perspective) in this first month of the year means hitting the destination of the light, rather than its origin. Why? Because the origin of this light, namely the United States (and therefore the US dollar), is the wild card that constantly changes its aim. Conversely, the destination on which that light reverberates, namely the countries and currencies featured in this January Trade Corner, once struck by that original light (the US dollar), must necessarily suffer the consequences and cannot in any way ignore those consequences.
For this reason, the first Trade Corner of the year, and thus my trading, takes on a more exotic aspect, specifically focused on emerging and secondary currencies.
Clarification: the positions highlighted here represent the beating heart of a macro vision, based on a fundamental assumption: that early 2026 could see the US dollar in difficulty. This underlying principle of the trading plan is also highlighted in the piece “Macro Vision for 2026”. It aligns with the macro guidelines I’ve been highlighting in the “All Gates, All Barbarians” series.
Therefore, some of the trades highlighted here represent the cornerstones of this start of the year (long-term trades), to which I will attempt to add (when the opportunity arises) purely speculative (and therefore short-term) pieces in which I will rely on major currencies (primarily the euro).
As I announced in the last Weekly Report, this first Trade Corner of the year begins with the closure of all positions that had been within the scope of my trading plan since 2025. I closed the short USD/YEN trade, as this trade appears to be trending along the lines of the (rambling and inconsistent) macro data that continues to emerge from the United States, rather than the Bank of Japan’s serious intention (which I still cannot see) to proceed with a continuous and repeated interest rate hike. I also closed positions tied to the Australian dollar because the night between January 6 and 7, 2026, highlighted data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which showed a stronger-than-expected slowdown in inflation, with the consumer price index falling to 3.4% year-on-year in November, compared to 3.8% in October. The market had expected a less marked decline (around 3.6%). This is the lowest level since August; however, the RBA’s preferred measure (Core Inflation) also fell, from 3.3% to 3.2%, and remains above the 2-3% target range.
Let’s now dive straight into the 12 trades I have considered.
