by Macro D
These days, it happens to me often. The numbers don't add up, and macro ideas don't have the lifeblood to withstand the first storms. When the macro context becomes illegible, I go looking for the highest cloud and try to sit on it. From the celestial attic, everything is more transparent. Good. Now, most central banks are cutting rates, and they're doing so at the same time as long-term yields are rising. An example? UK and Japanese bonds (10-, 20-, and 30-year) are breaking records that haven't been threatened since the 1990s. We've seen the 30-year Gilt at 5.61% (the highest since 1998) and the 30-year Japanese bond at 3.213%, yet we're all still here, ready for even bolder visions. History advances, and with it, the earthquake about to shake Paris, where French OATs are destined to star in a horror film where innocent bystanders will be left empty-handed.
What’s going on? Let’s explore