The Macro Book

Idea Generation: Contrarian & Macro and Secular Trend Investing

This is the second instalment of the macro book focusing on the subject of generating investment ideas. You can find the first post here, where I explored some unconventional sources when looking for ideas. I have also provided 15 valuable resources I am using personally. Additionally, I gave subscribers plenty of official resources where data is readily available for those who are looking deep enough.

Source: Dall-e

Here is a little reminder of what we are trying to accomplish within the PAMB framework:

As announced a few weeks ago, I will publish a series of articles about PAMB (Paper Alfa Macro Book). This will encompass all relevant elements of a full investment process. We will cover the following important stages.

1. Idea Generation

2. Idea Structuring

3. Risk / Sizing

4. Portfolio Construction

5. Risk Management

This will be fun and educational, aiming at anyone interested in all the necessary aspects to make this actionable. I will also make it interactive and provide useful tools for those interested.

Finally, we will run a portfolio of trades encompassing any available tradeable, liquid asset class. All subscribers will be able to participate in the idea generation. We can even set up a mini-investment committee to steer the portfolio. It will be, therefore, more strategic than a day-trading vehicle.

Today’s post is continuing on the important elements of idea generation. I will particularly expand on two important areas when considering generating profitable ideas, namely the art of contrarian investing and macro & secular trend investing.

On the topic of secular trend investing, I had a great conversation on my inaugural Spaces with the alchemist investor, comparing the worlds of innovation equity growth and macro investing. You can find the recording here.

Now, let’s dive straight in.