I have a habit: when the world enters a spiral of hell, like the one it’s currently experiencing, I review all the geographical maps of the past, starting with those I first encountered during my wonderful school years. I don’t know what it’s all about, perhaps melancholy. The world’s national borders continue to shift, but what do we really know about the reasons behind these shifts? We see the story we’re told, but can we vouch for the veracity of that story? A wise old man said, “In his heart, every man thinks he is right, but if every man tried to live with the heart of Jesus, then that same man would understand that no man is right.” But now, let’s not bring up religion. I have to be frank. The changes of these days aren’t just geopolitical, they are “geo” and everything that can follow: economic, cultural, moral, social, and financial. What happens before our eyes today requires a “filtering capacity” that must be far more substantial than that demonstrated by the humans who preceded us. It’s no longer just a matter of sifting through what’s said, but also sifting through who says a sure thing, the context in which that particular thing is said, who stands to benefit, and who stands to lose. Today, understanding what’s happening in the world requires ever greater attention, and even that isn’t enough. Once I’ve questioned everything and turned the latest news I’m offered inside out, what’s left? I’m often left with an idea that’s falling apart, frayed, without rhyme or reason, and where no point of arrival for reason proves a haven. Once you’ve questioned everything and no longer believe anything, there’s only one thing left to do: look at the pages of history. The world has seen so much; after all, it’s only been hosting us for a few days, so I ask myself:
“Why should this same world fear these days more than it feared days past? This is the world that has seen pharaohs, kings, armies of a hundred thousand men beating one another with sticks, good-for-nothings who became dictators, hypocrites who became prophets. Why should the powerful of today inspire more fear than the powerful of yesterday?”
Answer: “Because the powerful of today thrive on the characteristics of modern times that no other day in the past has ever had: cruising speed and the hiding place of invisibility.”
Well, yes. Today, the world’s inhabitants (not just the powerful) can harm one another at a speed never seen before, and these same men can be executioners without their victims seeing them coming. And I ask myself “Are we sure this is simply the fruit of progress? Could it be that it’s an unstoppable degradation of the human spirit?” Let’s get to the heart of the matter. Today, according to him, there’s a single man in command, although when all is said and done, I suspect that all that ranting conceals the profile of a man who isn’t obeyed even in his own home. Trump returned to the White House relatively recently. Still, if I were to list all the orders he’s given, all the ultimatums he’s issued, all the threats he’s uttered, all the insults he’s put on the table, I think I’d waste time and end up with a report that wouldn’t do him any credit. They say “a barking dog never bites” but in this specific case, it would be more accurate to observe that “this barking dog might want to bite, but it can’t”. Most of Trump’s words and actions prove within twenty-four hours to be yet another flop, and upon closer inspection, the only part of the world still clearly suffering from America’s psychological subjugation is the Old Continent. The rest of the world thanks him and goes about its business. This reckless and individualistic attitude makes me think of how, in less than a century, the world has gone from a perspective in which “moderation” was the true face of power to one in which “excess” is the only litmus test of a brash and selfish power. It’s as if the value of “words” is no longer what it once was. When Franklin Delano Roosevelt or Dwight D. Eisenhower spoke, you could agree or disagree, but you trusted that their “public word” would immediately correspond to a specific public action. Can we say the same with Donald Trump? But let’s not kid ourselves!.
It now seems clear to me that the new occupant of the White House views the world as his personal playground. In this sun-warmed land, he publicly sets himself up as the defender of American interests first and foremost. Still, privately, he is primarily concerned with his own interests. His daily show is more akin to that of a street performer who has escaped from a “madhouse“ than that of a political leader. And while he pursues a destiny in which he is remembered as the greatest president in the history of the United States of America, around Washington and around all our homes, the geopolitical order, as we have come to know it, is heading towards its demise. It’s not necessary to bring up religion (whatever religion each of us believes in, if we believe in it at all). Why bring up something that human beings have already unconsciously decided to abandon? I think that the all-out defence of any God, through methods that he himself (God) condemns, ultimately results in the disappearance of that same God from the eyes of those who think they are fighting in his name. If we believe in a God (whoever he may be), how can that God be pleased to see the home he gave us (neat and clean) increasingly reduced to rubble?
“We do it to defend his name!” someone might respond, without realising that this response is equivalent to another of the same ilk, namely “I take your life because I believe in life.”
I hear from many quarters that the world is eager to move toward a multipolar environment. Are we sure? Where is it written that taking some power from the United States of America and redistributing it elsewhere (primarily to China) will silence the world’s chaos? Who can assure me that China doesn’t actually intend to replace the United States of America? And who can assure me that behind China, there aren’t other states intending to do the same? That the rules of the game are changing became clear when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the post-war global order is now “obsolete.” The point is that the United States intends to tamper with that international order, redefining it once again to its advantage. And for the first time, not only does much of the rest of the world disagree, but it also believes it has the means to prevent everything from being decided in Washington. This man, who moves through the halls of the world like an elephant in a jewellery store, continues to act in a disjointed, instinctive, divisive, and arrogant manner, in the name and on behalf of a people led to believe that the world belongs to the United States of America, not that the United States of America belongs to the world. Today, our planet’s pockets are filled with disasters, and it would be too easy (and hypocritical) to reduce the world’s ills to the conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, between Israel and Hamas. There is plenty of fire smouldering beneath the ashes, and in the corridors of power, arsonists abound, and firefighters are absent. Why?
The “will to power[1]“ philosophised by Nietzsche is today experienced by humanity as an inexhaustible effort that forgets the central lesson of any philosophy seeking to change the world, allowing the world to remain in its place. Today’s will to power presumes it can eliminate the will to power of others. There hasn’t been such a substantial interference from personal ambition in human history. The global trend is clearly toward wanting to decide for oneself, each one’s own destiny. Today, the world’s borders become waste paper in the face of the latest “invisible artefacts” of the human mind: I’m thinking, for example, of the Internet and artificial intelligence. And so, while hegemony moves to the cloud, only suffering remains with its feet firmly planted on the ground. Yet, no matter how loud leaders shout, they are the first to know that the castles they have built are “houses of paper.” Putin knows full well that if he didn’t have that spendthrift Xi Jinping, who keeps buying him oil and gas, things would change for him overnight. Netanyahu knows full well that if he didn’t have Trump, who has a special interest in protecting Israel, things would get dire for him. No leader is unaware of their weaknesses, yet each of these leaders carries on as if that weakness doesn’t exist because they’re confident that no other influential figure in the world is willing to change the status quo with a show of force openly. Indeed, these are times of deception. And in this global jungle, we are here wondering about the effects of macroeconomic events, evaluating, taking positions, placing our bets and then adjusting them, following economic indicators, trembling when we hear the words “inflation” and “unemployment” chattering our teeth every time a central bank committee meets, and trying to stay on our feet waiting for the opportunity to exploit our competitive advantage. Macro trading these days is constantly threatened by the gruff and savage echoes of a time so embittered that I begin to think someone forced it to spend more than a season in the company of Charon, and I, poor fool, have failed to notice. The macro framework we all apply is demanding that we update it. There’s a problem. Updating our understanding of the macro environment isn’t like updating a Windows package. It requires more effort. Truly, the macro environment is no longer content to be understood through economic indicators, monetary policies, geopolitical events, capital flows, global economic trends, increased volatility, changes in commodity prices, economic sanctions, and trade restrictions. It’s as if the macro environment were saying, “You have to try harder; if you want to understand me, you have to go further.”
I’ll discuss this further in Part Two.
[1] The essence of the world, says Nietzsche, is the will to power. When people challenge each other, it is the will to power that is at play, and the superman embodies this will to power, which characterises all beings through the instinct to increase their own vital force.