Super Thursday post FOMC

Quick Thoughts

There you go. FOMC hawkish pause was delivered. I’m not usually bothered about what they think they say when they are putting out their “dot plots” and assumptions. And I don’t think that’s what got markets shaken, really, as it was broadly expected. It was more how good old honest Jay delivered some of his answers. He doesn’t know. Returning to my Heisenberg uncertainty analogy, the Fed doesn’t know where they are or where they are going. And that uncertainty, while obvious, isn’t good news as policymaking is left in the dark. Let’s see whether some messaging adjustments will be performed in the coming days.

This morning, we also had hawkish Scandies (NOK & SEK) while the SNB held rates despite a 64% probability of a hike. BoE is up next with market pricing 50% probability.

Let’s look at some details.