Post-CPI Thoughts

Any Cuts at all? Is Europe sleeping?

A quick update post-CPI, which I expected to come in softer in core, transpired with June printing (0.23% m-o-m, while the consensus was expecting 0.32%). With 3-, 6-, and 12-month annualised rates all ticking higher, however, the market seemed to look past the initial reaction, especially as signs of tariff pass-through to core goods gained traction.

While inflation isn’t surging, it’s not falling enough for the Fed to gain confidence to cut soon. It’s funny how markets have unwound some expectations of a July cut recently, just to now also put September in doubt. Macro changes happen quickly!

Let’s dig deeper behind the paywall and also hear from Macro D and his latest thoughts on Europe and his macro FX trades.