Paper Alfa's 2026
4 years of positive performance, what's next?
And just like that, another year has passed. As promised, I discuss the 2026 buy-and-hold portfolio below. 2025 has been another stellar year, with the portfolio outperforming the SPX by around 7%, coming in at +23% YTD in USD terms. Note, this is as of Monday’s close, and I will publish the final number early in the new year. This is the fourth year of positive performance. Easy to forget that 2022 was a down year, yet my portfolio was up close to 20%.
For reference, below are the annual outlook and portfolio posts, starting with 2025.
Paper Alfa's 2025
Once again, we find ourselves at the end of the year, which has thrown many surprises at us. What has been your best trade? Which one was your worst? I have plenty in both categories. As for every turn in the year, we read huge swats of outlooks and best trades for the coming year. Rest assured, the majority of them will have stopped out by the end of the first quarter. Read one or two of them to know where the consensus is.
Paper Alfa's 2024
Another trip around the sun has almost been completed. I truly hope that it has been a successful year for you and your loved ones. No year is easy. Remember last year, as suppressed financial assets and disappointing returns made for a sombre mood. This also impacted outlooks for the new year, where
Paper Alfa's 2023
What a year this has been. I have to be honest; what turned out to be a Fed one-two hike scenario turned into something that only a few of us could have foreseen a year ago. I certainly did not expect any of those market moves this year, at least not to the extent we have seen.
Let’s now focus on how the 2026 portfolio is constructed to hold for the coming 365 days. What changes are in store, and what is the reason behind those modifications? The goal, once again, is to participate in capital appreciation in selected markets where risk/reward is favourable while avoiding large drawdowns. Outcomes, of course, are never guaranteed, but one can prepare.
As always, we don’t know what the main drivers in 2026 will be or which trade dominance will emerge throughout the year. This year, Gold & Silver were clearly consistent beneficiaries of whatever narrative was thrown at them. As such, a diversified portfolio of attractive assets is key to creating robustness.
Many of my thoughts going into the new year are in my recent post below, which is free to anyone. In addition, I will post my overall thoughts and asset classes in early January, which I hope subscribers will find helpful.
Reflections for the Year Ahead
I hope you celebrated a wonderful Christmas with your friends and loved ones. I personally had a quiet time, spending quality time with the family away from screens, although I had to marvel at the Silver ramp around Christmas. You can’t avoid markets entirely after all.
I’m wishing you all a fantastic year ahead!
Let’s now dig into the 2026 portfolio.