Model Signal Alert

August 1st, 2023

Good morning to you all. August is upon us, so may it be a great one. For those who haven’t read yesterday’s Attack the Week, please have a look. Especially my Monday thoughts (free to read) on central bankers’ necessity to be somewhat unpredictable are important as I set out my thinking about where we are likely headed next.

Overnight, we had another central bank hitting the pause button. The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.10%, closer to market pricing but against some views out there that they’d hike by 25bps. The Statement was marginally more dovish, with further rate hikes hinging on the evolving risks, as opposed to inflation itself. While they are expected to continue hiking, the pace has now clearly changed. This is in line with the recent prevalent global trend of a hike-and-wait mode.

The model fired up four alerts as of yesterday’s close. Let’s see what we got.