Mid-Week Update
April 3, 2024
Boom. April has already delivered a bit more action than the last few boring trading sessions in Q1.
Bonds are again the culprit, transcending a bit more volatility into the global macro mix. With US rates breaking the top-end of their recent ranges, the cross-correlation impact has to be rightfully assessed.
Recent firmer spot and forward growth (PMI) numbers have prompted the re-assessment of inflation risk premia and a potentially higher neutral rate. This is also the cross-reference check for what commodity and particular gold prices are telling you from here. While a few days don’t make a solid trend, it’s worthwhile to note that the model (see chart above) still has a long yield bias on a momentum basis.
A reminder that you can now also use my models in TradingView scripts, which I made available for subscribers to use on their charts for a fee. If you are interested, ping me an email with your TV username. Please note that I have now closed access for non-paying subscribers.
Let’s now explore what the early April vol has meant in terms of our model’s behaviour.