Mid-Week Update

October 23, 2024

Two weeks until the election. Two things I look forward to. One is an all-nighter with plenty of hotdogs and burgers to keep me awake, and the second is all the intellectualisation of market moves post-outcome, proving pretty much everyone wrong. Not a day goes by when a broker doesn’t pitch me some crazy trade, double-digital or reverse knock-out structures to hedge. They just want my money. As for me, I am going to think about the likely outcome, what is priced in and will most likely move. I will keep it simple. As opined before, if there is real volatility people are playing for, it won’t only be a one-day thing. There will be plenty of opportunities, and I urge everyone to think about their own trading plan. Don’t forget that Middle Eastern tensions might flare up just after the election is called. This will give it all another dimension. Be nimble and keep it simple is my mantra here.

Bonds saw a massive sell-off at the start of the week. Models are still short and are not flashing any reversals yet. The US dollar keeps ramping while commodities are still being bid. Equities are nowhere yet but holding in relatively well. Let’s see what Macro D has in store for us before we head into updating some charts and alerts that came up over the past few days. I am also in the process to introduce an intra-day model for those keen to explore narrower time frames. I would also urge you to read Macro D’s first pre-election piece below. It’s a must-read as we approach November 5th.