Mid-Week Update

Waller & EU CPI Prints

Paper Alfa is now fully back in the saddle. While I was travelling, a few macro cross currents have intensified, which I will opine on in separate posts. Most important, however, is that my models have been delivering again.

Looking at bonds alone, the momentum model went short in mid-May, around 3.5% in the US 10-year yield and long again on the 6th of November at 4.6%, banking more than 100 bps. Meanwhile, the reversal model gave us plenty of oversold and overbought conditions, profiting on shorter time frames (red and green triangles on the chart).

This is just one of many examples the models are looking at. I can pull several other charts across Equities, FX, Commodities and Crypto. I normally avoid marketing my work and rely on the good old framework that a good product sells itself. If Paper Alfa has helped you, I’d be very grateful if you could recommend my work and refer interested parties to join the pack.

Let’s now dive straight into what else is flashing as of today. Let’s also explore the most recent inflationary developments in the Eurozone and Australia, which have fueled the global bond rally.