Mid-Week Update

March 25, 2025

As we are aproaching month and quarter-end its worth scanning the overall macro landscape before updating some important charts. We, of course, are eagerly awaiting the April 2nd tariff announcements, with markets somewhat relaxed about the outcomes at the current juncture. Just as I’m typing Trump is setting up for a nice end to the week.

“EU is freeloading, is terrible on trade”

US Treasuries have interestingly failed to trade much below the 4.20% 10-year yield or the 50d moving average as highlighted below. I think this stubbornes is highlighting that recession fears are premature and that we are likely facing a period of staflationary conditions.

I’m using a rough US bond yield model behind the paywall to explain this development. Additionally, I will scan other important charts and analyse what a stagflationary environment could look like. Macro D will then finish up with his thoughts.

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