Mid-Week Update
April 30, 2025
100 days of Trump. It feels longer than that, but that’s what intensity does for you. In his short reign, there were not many boring days to contend with. It’s been fun, but certainly tiring.
I have covered my macro roadmap and blueprint extensively, which I still consider to be very much in force. I took quite a bit of risk down given that the tail risks have largely been extinguished by the administration walking back much of the hard talk and figures. The risk-reward balance has admittedly changed a bit, but that doesn’t mean we are facing a different destination. If you haven’t read the investment implications I laid out on March 31, please see the details below.
Waiting for April Fools + 1
With quarter end now firmly behind us, we and everyone else are awaiting April 2nd and with it the potential repercussions. A seismic event for financial markets or just another one of those unclear presidential communications where everything is still very much up to interpretation? I am not sure financial markets want to grapple with continued uncertainty and are pricing in enough event risk premia in case we are indeed presented with a historical event. I wrote about it in
A reminder that there is a 20% discount on all subscriptions running until month-end, so you have a until the end of today to benefit from this offer and join the growing pack.
For new joiners and subscribers, I have also published a free educational thought piece that covers decision-making in general. A blueprint, presented to us by a good friend of mine who has kindly put this together.
From Chaos to Clarity
In a world overflowing with noise, complexity, and endless choices, clarity is not a luxury — it’s survival. Without a structured way to evaluate options, life can easily dissolve into a reactive series of compromises, wasted energy, and regret.
As we approach month-end, I wanted to highlight a valuable research piece that I think everyone should study. It very much aligns with my thinking and includes a few more interesting insights.
Let’s dig in.