Macro, Rates, Inflation and the White House
Macro D Guest Article
During the 2008 financial crisis, George W. Bush said the phrase, "If money isn't loosened up, this sucker could go down!". Today, in 2024, as in 2008, is there a risk of a blockage of capital flows? The economic situation in recent years has seen a continuous up and down between crisis and recovery, and this up and down is destined to continue. There are ways and ways to continue to follow a path already traced. Here, I reiterate the phrase "a path already traced". As macro players, we are necessarily called to draw the boundaries of the big themes and not of the small paragraphs, and this means that our bets must necessarily (if they are actual macro bets) have the courage to take positions that are:
Broad, not so much in terms of millions, but "in terms of vision"
Have a time horizon that is not afraid to go beyond the short-term
Have the strength to address where the masses do not look.
If we respect these three universal laws of the macro, we certainly cannot fear a political event (as important as the American elections are). Our positions may suffer in the short term, but the macro is not a room in the house of a political event; if anything, it is the political event that is a room in the home of the macro. In the house of the macro, which is one of the doors that immediately catches the eye? I would answer in this way: The door of the rate curve.
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