Macro D's 2025

Black Swans ?

I would start from a premise. The black swan is always lurking. 2024 has just been put away, but it is always ready to remind us that unexpected events never take prisoners. Two examples above all. Who had predicted the fall of the Assad regime? Who had predicted the reinstatement of martial law in South Korea? Nobody. Of course, most changes continue to be predicted (look at what happened in the European and American elections), and this is a godsend for the markets that tend to work in the wake of imaginable constancy, but when the black swan comes out. What happens if the markets are forced to work in the wake of an unimaginable frenzy? Stock markets all over the world take flight. Since I do not intend to place my chips on a list of possible black swans, I will approach the year that has just begun here by referring to hypothetical black swans, but I will be careful not to associate a certain percentage of realization with such hypothetical black swans.

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