Kevin Warsh: Meteorite or Mirage?

Part 1: Gold, China, and the Political Reinvention of the Fed

Something has broken in the global macro order — and the markets know it.

Gold no longer behaves the way it “should.” Real rates are rising, yet bullion refuses to retreat . Central banks are accumulating metal at a historic pace. U.S. debt is no longer treated as the unquestioned sanctuary it once was. And in the middle of this quiet but profound shift, Donald Trump has made his move.

Kevin Warsh.

This piece is Part I of a two-part series examining what his appointment truly means — not just for interest rates, but for the architecture of the next monetary regime.

At first glance, the choice seems paradoxical. A reputed hawk at a moment when Trump demands lower rates. A former critic of quantitative easing is now stepping into a White House that would not hesitate to demand it. A man who once resisted monetary experimentation is now expected to “think imaginatively.”

But this appointment is not merely about the price of money. It is about credibility, leverage, China, gold, and the fragile confidence underpinning U.S. sovereign debt. It is about whether the Federal Reserve is about to enter a political presidency disguised as institutional continuity.

Why is gold divorcing from real rates?
Why are central banks buying metal instead of Treasuries?
Why would Trump appoint a hawk when he openly wants a dove?

And most importantly: is this a strategic masterstroke designed to restore confidence in American debt — or the opening act of something far more radical?

In this first instalment, I unpack the geopolitical undercurrents, the Bessent factor, the China question, and the deeper logic behind Warsh’s nomination. In Part II, we will explore how this new Fed presidency may actually operate — and what it means for rates, markets, and macro positioning.

Because this is not just a change at the Fed.

It may be the beginning of a new monetary script.

Let’s explore.