Geo-Military & Geo-Financial Macro

The new theatre of conflict — and the old language of capital

I’ve learned to be suspicious of anyone who speaks about the future with too much certainty — especially when the tape is doing its best to humble all of us, day after day.

So let me set expectations properly. This isn’t a prophecy. It’s not a grand forecast. And it’s definitely not me auditioning for the role of “macro oracle” while the world politely waits for the punchline.

It’s simply me looking up from the screens and noticing that the game is changing again. The backdrop is shifting. The incentives are shifting. The kind of risk that used to stay in the margins now sits at the centre of the table and demands to be priced, whether we like it or not.

When I try to frame 2026, I keep coming back to a blunt symmetry: on one side, weapons; on the other, banknotes. A geo-military macro that darkens the sky, and a geo-financial macro that rearranges the plumbing underneath our feet. Ares and Croesus, wrestling in the same room — and we’re trading in the noise of it.

The only honest approach, I think, is to stay humble, stay curious, and keep filtering. Because the hardest part isn’t finding the “right” narrative. It’s keeping your footing on the highest point of the mountain while every gust of wind insists you lean too far one way.

Let’s now dive in.