Friday Thoughts / Macro Dashboard
New Site for Technical Models / Thoughts / Dashboard
Welcome to all existing and new subscribers to this platform.
First of all, a quick announcement. I am thrilled to introduce a new dedicated site, the home of all my models, dashboards, and signals. pa-globalmacro.com.
It is also the launchpad for any new strategy and further technical enhancement I am building out, and I am excited about what’s to come.
The best part: all current and future developments will be free for existing paying subscribers.
If you're thinking about subscribing, now is the time. I will be grandfathering all members up until Monday, 6th April, onto the new site at no extra cost. After that, pricing will change for new subscribers.
If you're already a member, you don't need to do anything — I have already added you as a member to the new site. Go ahead, you should have full access already. Just click on sign in, use the same email you subscribed to this publication and you should receive a magiclink with a code and be good to go.
And yes, of course, this site will remain the home of my thoughts and regular publications.
What's on the site today
For now, the site includes the recently launched dashboard, which shows all currently tracked securities and gives an overview of momentum strength, reversal plays and performance since the momentum signal has fired.
In addition, you will find individual charts for all securities, each including the momentum and reversal model indicators.
As a new feature, I have added a daily run of changes that flags any securities experiencing changes in any of their models.
The best thing is, this is just the start. I plan to add more tools going forward to help you all navigate the road ahead.
Let’s now turn to markets. First, a heads-up to Macro D’s new Macro FX Trade Corner piece, where he is presenting 6 new FX trade ideas to our pack.
Our buy-and-hold portfolio for the year ended March on a strong footing, having almost regained the high watermark of just north of 10%, and now tracking YTD USD performance of 9.2%. The hedges have worked while we are letting the strategic allocations run.
Markets don’t move in straight lines. Thursday saw another risk-off event after Trump failed to convince market participants with his much-anticipated speech. While there was nothing new in his rhetoric, the lack of detail or plan left many unimpressed. I wasn’t surprised and saw the strong rally into quarter-end and the first day of Q2 as a fading opportunity. If there is no coherent strategy, fat tails are growing bigger by the day. Anything can happen at this stage, although my sense is that we will likely see further escalation. Is there reason to panic? Only those who don’t know what they are doing.
Behind the paywall, I am posting an important link to an interview with a seasoned central banker and someone who, to me, symbolises the current framework of monetary policy across the major global central banks. His words carry weight, and I was somewhat surprised to hear his thoughts on the current crisis.
We will also hear Macro D’s latest thoughts and Macro FX implications before we have a look at the latest edition of the Global Macro Dashboard.
Have a wonderful Easter weekend. I will be travelling, and given the long weekend, normal business will resume next week. There will be no ATW update this weekend. Instead, I will post the latest Asset Allocation Update to subscribers next week. Of course, if any new developments change my views, I will communicate my thoughts here or over Substack chat.
Let’s now dig in.
