Friday Paper Round

Charts on Things

What a week it’s been. Well, let’s look at a few charts and see where things stand outside all the noise.

ES looks like the model was correct in holding to shorts while the oversold bounce has played out — nothing new to report here. Intra-day vol looks more violent than the daily charts.

NQ, Model remains long but is flagging an overbought signal which was hit today.

ZN Future has extended after a relatively short-lived retracement from overbought conditions while breaking 200d EMA.

US 2-year yields (although Paper is not a fan of plotting yields), look, however, interesting. The sharp retracement gave a “sell yield signal) although the daily price action would imply a reluctance to break for now. 100 bps of cuts priced into the end of 2023 should be a reasonable base, absent a further bank rout and contagion, of course.

BTC is stubborn, holding up well with NQ / Gold and the general positive narrative of banking troubles and resulting deposit flights. Holding pattern.

DXY, model is short (indicated by purple sign). Some stochastic have bottomed and slowly grinding higher, which indicates a positive impulse (5-10 days out).

Gold, had a nice retracement which worked very well and then bounced strongly as the model would suggest. Let’s see whether we can break-out to new 12-month highs.

Crude, longer-term (short-term is very choppy) gives you a good indication of where we stand. Anywhere close to 60 is a long-term entry point in Paper’s humble opinion. These are monthly candles.

Good Luck out there! And don’t forget, none of this is financial advice.

Your,

Paper Alfa