Friday Paper Charts

November 3, 2023

I am not feeling my perkiest today. There seems to be a bug going around that’s flatting out people. I usually have a robust immune system, but this time, I can barely look at the screen without feeling an uncomfortable sting in my forehead. “Man flu”, as my wife would call it.

Regardless, I am powering on and delivering you the charts as is usual for a Friday. I’m on some good medication that is giving me bursts of energy, but excuse some minor spelling if it should occur. I’m a perfectionist, and I certainly don’t want to slip on my standards.

As I am struggling to read, so I am switching to listening mode. I came across this great video of two absolute macro titans talking. It is refreshing to hear those self-made billionaires (Paul Tudor Jones & Stanley Druckenmiller) talk markets like any other guy. This should give you comfort, too. Listen accurately to how they phrase and probabilistically assess market conditions. It’s outstanding. There are multiple decades of wisdom in there, and I think everyone should have a listen.

Fiscal largess is now on everyone’s mind, and debt is at the forefront of those two minds. I have only a fraction of their experience, but it is also certainly the first time that I am starting to be concerned about how far we can push math in a fiat world. It resonates a lot with my thinking, so I am curious to hear from you what you think speaks against such a view. I have a few thoughts of my own, of course.

Let’s now dig straight into the charts. For those who might have missed it, I produced a guide to the models earlier this week. If you haven’t read it, I suggest doing this before moving on.

Done it? Great, let’s go.