Friday Chart Book

Metals Consensus Check / Volatility Incoming / 250+ Chart Updates

Friday Chart Book

There is certainly no shortage of action on any given day. As we are closing this month, many unanswered questions remain, with volatility rising across the macro spectrum. January is typically driven by numerous narratives, but only a handful ultimately prove profitable. This time will be no different.

I attended a roundtable with other macro investors. The mood was buoyant — almost uniformly so — with many participants openly glowing about their January gains in gold and silver. In particular, one portfolio manager argued that she doesn’t see the antithesis to being long precious metals. I argued that this might be true, but the prices you pay for your views are what determines your returns. The consensus enthusiasm immediately set off a warning light for me, even though I share similar positions. When trades start to sound easy, they usually aren’t.

Let’s unpack a few things.