Friday Chart Book

Thanksgiving / Market Thoughts / 250+ Chart Book

To all my readers, I wish you and your families a very Happy Thanksgiving.

This time of year always brings a pause, a reset, a chance to zoom out from screens, charts, and cycles, and remember what actually matters. Connection. Togetherness. Gratitude.

We’re all just macro traders surfing the waves of chaos and complexity, trying to find structure in the noise. Markets move, regimes shift, narratives change — and through it all, what binds us is not prediction, but persistence. There’s no judgment in approaching markets; there’s only humility.

I’m still astonished, even after all this time, by how many people spend their energy on fighting about their intellectual status on social platforms — who’s right, who’s smarter, who called what. Does that matter? Absolutely not.

This place was never about ego. It’s about learning, testing, and sharing. Network effects like this community exist to enrich discussion, to exchange frameworks, and to get better together. No one gets it all right. I certainly don’t.

I expected more equity downside in November, but it didn’t materialise. Market psychology stayed strong, liquidity stayed abundant, and it now looks like we’ll get the rate cut everyone has been hoping for.

Will 25 basis points change our lives? Of course not. It’s never about the number. It’s about signalling, about narrative, about how the focus shifts. Markets don’t just fool you — they invite you to fool yourself, as Richard Feynman famously remarked.

And so we keep learning. We stay humble. We ride the waves.

I’m deeply grateful for everyone who’s joined along this journey — for the thoughtful readers, the quiet observers, and the curious minds who push this space forward. Your engagement and curiosity make this all worthwhile. For those curious to join, I am still running a 20% discount until the end of November.

Once again, I wish you all a warm, restful Thanksgiving and a fantastic end to the year ahead. May it bring perspective, patience, and good trades — in markets and in life.

As far as the 2025 buy-and-hold portfolio is concerned, we have turned into a positive November as of yesterday’s close and are tracking +22.6% YTD.

Our momentum and reversal models highlighted the oversold conditions in NQ (highlighted below with green triangle arrows) last week, which resulted in a bounce back above the 20 and 50 EMA lines. Interestingly, momentum indicators haven’t switched yet. The index level performance, however, masks the big factor dispersion that moved beneath the surface. Tech-related exposures were trimmed, and as volatility spiked, momentum-driven strategies had to de-risk. In many ways, this leaves us rather clean going into the final stretch of the year.

A reminder that you can now also use my trading models in TradingView scripts, which I made available for subscribers to use on their charts. This is not free and incurs an additional cost. These are my momentum, reversal and intra-day models I am often referencing. If you are interested, ping me an email with your TV username. Note that only paying subscribers will be granted access. No exceptions.

As we are preparing for 2026, I can not help but reflect on a quite tumultuous year, which, when looking at YTD performance columns alone, is hiding major shifts in the making. Societal, geopolitical, and economic structures are shifting; we can no longer rely on the past to guide us. Wealth gaps are ever-increasing, and a glorious future of AI and all its implications is handsomely discounted. Monetary leaders are projecting further monetary easing, with fiscal authorities likely adding more stimulus to address societal and geopolitical issues. I am as open-minded as possible, but I think 2026 is going to be very testing times. There are too many tails that are possible yet glaringly underpriced. Rest assured, we will tackle them head-on and discuss investment implications before they emerge.

Let’s now read some of my friend Macro D’s thoughts on Japan, the UK, RBA and RBNZ and some FX trades before we go through the entire chart book.

Have a blessed weekend, and good luck out there, everyone!