Friday Chart Book

December 27, 2024

I hope that you truly enjoyed a blessed Christmas with your loved ones. I certainly did. While occasionally checking in on what markets are doing, I have to remind myself that detachment is often the best way to recharge and prepare for what’s to come. It’s so easy to become biased just because we have a trend over the year. We become blinded to the many opportunities and paths markets can take. Forget the past as soon as you can. 2024 is almost behind us, and so are the returns, stories and volatility events. Rid yourself of any ego. Hopefully, a year of healthy returns has been given to you, and there is no guarantee this will be repeated again. This is the way it is.

All we can do is improve our approach to taking risks and work on our process of extracting returns. That’s not easy, but it's a necessity. Look at what has worked and alter, change or get rid of things that you think aren’t working. For those new here, I would suggest reading my Macro Book series, where I go through an investment process. That series is still in progress; some new pieces will be posted soon.

Needless to say the Paper Alfa offering will be expanding and make new tools and educational pieces available to everyone. The best thing about it? Prices will remain the same. I have zero aspirations to milk the last hard-earned penny from those who are interested in joining the journey. All I am ever going to charge is for my time spent, nothing more, nothing less.

I will update my long-term portfolio for 2025 soon and look at how the 2024 portfolio has fared. Plenty of cross-currents are here again to navigate as bonds look poised to break previous highs in yields. New inflation cycle? Possible. Recession? Of course. Rate hikes? Sure. EM panics? By all means. Deflation? Why not. There is nothing that’s impossible in my book. That’s also why I wouldn’t write an outlook, never mind an outlook of things that I think won’t happen. We remain most flexible and open-minded about what can unfold. We prepare, study and sharpen our tools and go again and again. Relentless is our pursuit of getting smarter and taking risks where there are opportunities. There are no shortcuts.

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Most of you will be familiar with the models and their signals by now. If not, please study the guide I have published. I highly recommend that you go through these notes and guides if you are new to the pack. I am also working on an intra-day model.

Further below, the full book of 250+ charts covers the whole asset spectrum from equities, bonds, commodities, FX, and Crypto to give you the most inclusive view. On average, it will generally provide a good 5-10 set-ups every week. The Trial is still open, so if you are curious, why not try it out?

This is a reminder that you can now also use my models in TradingView scripts, which I made available for subscribers to use on their charts. This is not for free and incurs an additional cost. I am also in the process of making one of my intra-day models available. This will come at no additional cost to existing users, but new admissions will see a price increase. If you are interested, ping me an email with your TV username. Note that only paying subscribers will be granted access. No exceptions.

Let’s now scan the multitude of charts that I have updated for you below.