Attack the Week (ATW)
December Fireworks / Commodity Breakout / Calendar / Charts
December is around the corner, and with that, we only have a few weeks of proper trading liquidity left to make a last dent in our YTD P&Ls. The last month of the year usually offers a few treasures for those out there still hunting, as larger trends can still occur.
Month-end saw large moves, especially in commodities, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index hitting new YTD highs.
A weaker Dollar, rising uncertainties around the stickiness of inflation, and increasing investor angst over losing real purchasing power have put commodities on high alert once again. When zooming out, you can see the momentum and upside volatility of the commodity complex. Is that a trade I will have in the Paper Alfa 2026 portfolio? You will find out in a few weeks.
The fanfare around the UK’s new budget has reached a pinnacle over the weekend as the press has ganged up on Starmer and Reeves about having breached the manifesto promise of not raising taxes. A lot of it is semantics to me. I mean, has no politician even lied? Let’s not pretend that the new budget won’t change the trajectory of the UK one bit. Productivity and growth prospects remain low, with the BoE possibly having a lot of room to reduce rates in 2026. As far as UK 10-year gilts are concerned, they are finding themselves at the lower end of this year’s range. Will it last?
Our friend and Paper Alfa contributor Macro D has started a 3-part series on Japan. In Part 1, he analyses the stage for today’s dilemma: a nation where monetary fragility and strategic tension now move in lockstep. The narrative follows the re-emergence of an Abe-style doctrine through Sanae Takaichi, and asks whether a past-coded playbook can navigate a present defined by inflation drift, JGB volatility, and a hardening security perimeter vis-à-vis China and Taiwan.
As a reminder, today is the last day I’m running a 20% discount on subscriptions. Use the link below if you are keen to explore the full offering.
Let’s now read some Macro D’s latest thoughts on the Fed and Trump before we analyse the weekly calendar and interpret the output of our weekly asset allocation model.
Have a great start to December!