Attack the Week (ATW)
Playing Not to Lose / Weekly Calendar / Dashboard / FX Spreadsheet / Asset Allocation
Sunday Thoughts
Playing Not to Lose
The World Cup final is upon us and, like millions around the world, I am eagerly awaiting who will lift the trophy tonight. Could this be Messi’s last dance on the biggest stage? I have a feeling Argentina might just find a way. Whatever the outcome, both teams have played with heart, conviction and a willingness to keep attacking when it mattered most.
The English nation is still coming to terms with another painful semi-final defeat. It brought back memories of 2018 against Croatia. England took the lead early, only to gradually retreat into an increasingly defensive mindset before eventually being punished. Much of the criticism since has centred on the tactics, and rightly so in my view. Why would you spend almost forty minutes trying to protect a one-goal lead against arguably the best player in the world and a team that has repeatedly shown it can come back from behind?
Playing not to lose is rarely rewarded.
Not in football, not in life and certainly not in markets.
That does not mean taking reckless risks or abandoning discipline. Quite the opposite. It means recognising when the environment demands engagement rather than hesitation. There are simply too many important cross currents shaping markets today to sit on the sidelines waiting for complete clarity.
As macro investors we never receive certainty. We deal in probabilities, constantly adjusting our views as new information arrives. And right now there is certainly no shortage of it.
In this week’s detailed thought piece for subscribers, I look beyond the headlines to examine why today’s macro environment is becoming increasingly difficult to navigate—and why remaining engaged, rather than waiting for perfect clarity, may prove to be the winning strategy.
For paying members, I cover:
Why the renewed escalation between the US and Iran matters far more than oil prices currently suggest, and why the world has become structurally more fragile.
Whether markets are celebrating a single soft inflation print too enthusiastically, and why I still believe the September FOMC meeting remains very much alive.
How the AI investment story is evolving, from software into energy, infrastructure and geopolitics, and why the next winners may look very different from the last.
The key investment implications for navigating a world shaped by geopolitical fragmentation, inflation uncertainty and rapidly changing technological leadership.
In addition, as per usual in ATW, we then cover the following items.
Macro D’s latest thoughts and Macro FX trade spreadsheet
Weekly Macro Calendar / Outlook
Dashboard Analysis
Asset Allocation Model Update (now fully running on pa-globalmacro.com)
A reminder that I am running a 20% discount on subscriptions until the end of July. As a member on here, you have automatically access to the analysis, models and strategies on our dedicated website at pa-globalmacro.com.
Let’s go!
