Attack the Week (ATW)

AI, Jobs & the Future / Trump-Putin meeting

Sunday Thoughts

I hope everybody is having a glorious weekend.

I was looking at the chart below of the employment-to-population ratio in the US, which has been in a steady decline. See the chart below. I started to think about a potential mega-trend and began imagining the world ahead. While it might be too early for immediate action, it is still worthwhile contemplating what this graph will look like once the full effects of AI are felt.

So far, the steady decline in the ratio is the result of deep-rooted demographic and structural shifts that have been building for decades. The most powerful force is the ageing of the Baby Boomer generation, with millions leaving the workforce each year and reducing the share of working-age Americans. At the same time, younger people are entering the labour market later, staying in school longer and delaying full-time work. Even among prime-age workers, participation rates have slipped since the early 2000s, reflecting a combination of economic restructuring, the decline of manufacturing and middle-skill jobs, and the disruptive effects of automation and globalisation. Slower immigration and a reduced inflow of working-age migrants have further tightened the labour supply. This story continues.

In 2025 alone, hundreds of thousands of women have exited the labour force, citing a loss of remote work flexibility, rising childcare costs, and family obligations, especially in the absence of affordable care infrastructure. This exodus comes alongside a labour market that is no longer generating the same breadth of opportunities in middle-income roles, pushing some displaced workers out altogether.

With declining labour force participation, the only way to grow is through productivity, which has been in a steady decline, mostly because the service-led impact is so hard to measure correctly.

And here comes AI. From many angles, these technological advancements are thought to be similar to previous discoveries, in that they will create wealth and productivity gains strong enough to re-employ those who lost jobs in different areas of the economy. I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Let’s explore.