Attack the Week (ATW)
Art & Markets / FX Spreadsheet / Weekly Calendar / Dashboard Scan / Allocation Model
Sunday Thoughts
I am not much of an art man. I own a few original pieces myself, but not because they are valuable, fashionable, or hanging in the right gallery. I bought them because I loved them. They spoke to me. There was little analysis, no attempt to understand what the artist was trying to say. I simply looked at them and knew.
Likewise, you will rarely find me wandering through galleries on a Sunday afternoon. Drag me through the Tate Modern and, if I am being completely honest, I would probably classify 80% of what I see as complete nonsense. I am very much a love-or-hate person. There is rarely a middle ground.
A few years ago, however, my wife dragged me to a David Hockney exhibition. Until then, I knew remarkably little about him. What followed was one of the few artistic experiences that genuinely stopped me in my tracks.
This week, the world lost Hockney at the age of 88. One of Britain’s greatest artists, he spent more than six decades reinventing how we look at the world, moving effortlessly between painting, photography, digital art, iPads, and multi-screen visual installations. He never seemed interested in staying comfortably inside the boundaries of what art was supposed to be.
What captivated me was not simply the beauty of the work. It was the clarity. His famous A Bigger Splash remains one of the defining images of modern art. A swimming pool. A burst of water. California sunlight. At first glance, it appears almost absurdly simple. Yet the longer you look, the more impossible it becomes to ignore. Like the best trades, the best ideas often look obvious only after someone else has had the courage to express them.
Hockney also embraced technology long before most artists dared. While many complained that digital tools somehow diminished creativity, he was producing remarkable works on iPads and experimenting with entirely new ways of seeing. He understood that the tool was never the point. The vision was.
Perhaps that is why his work resonated with me.
When I look at art, I react in exactly the same way as when I look at a chart or a macro setup. I either love it or I hate it. There is very little in between.
I am not interested in forcing myself to appreciate something because everyone else does. I either see it, or I don’t. I either play or I pass.
Markets are remarkably similar.
The greatest trades I have ever put on were not the ones that required endless debate. They were the ones where the picture emerged clearly. The ones where the asymmetry jumped off the page. The ones where the market offered something that felt undeniable. At the moment, I do not see much of that.
Aside from a short-term short in gold that has since been covered and some bond positions picked up recently, I have largely been standing aside. Not because opportunities do not exist, but because the canvas currently feels dominated by noise rather than beauty.
The market is transfixed by the latest creations of Elon Musk. The political theatre surrounding Donald Trump, who celebrates another birthday this weekend, continues to generate headlines at a pace that would make even the most experimental artist blush. Every day seems to bring a new exhibition of hype, outrage, speculation, or narrative-driven nonsense.
Perhaps it is art. Perhaps it is performance art. Perhaps it is simply bullshit.
Whatever it is, I find little desire to chase it.
One of the hardest things in investing is accepting that not every period requires participation. There are times to paint, and there are times to stare at a blank canvas.
There are times when the market offers a masterpiece.
And there are times when the wisest course of action is to sit quietly in the gallery, hands behind your back, waiting for something worthy of your attention.
That is where I find myself today.
Watching. Waiting. Looking for the next setup that makes me feel the same way Hockney’s paintings did all those years ago.
The next trade is impossible to walk past. The next masterpiece. It will come.
Below, we have Macro D’s latest Macro FX spreadsheet and his thoughts before we scan the weekly macro calendar, study the latest macro dashboard output and see what the asset allocation model has in store for us this week.
I am still travelling, but I am keeping a very close eye on developments. I will be dialling into the Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chair. Look at the art piece of a chart below, and I’m sure he will be familiar with this setup. Good luck trying to be dovish.
