Attack the Week (ATW)

December 22, 2024

Sunday Thoughts

This is the penultimate ATW for 2024. To everyone celebrating, I wish you a peaceful and joyful Christmas with friends and family. Let’s be grateful for our blessings and focus on what really matters.

Of course, Christmas is also a season of excess. Too much food, too many drinks, and far too many parties. I’m already exhausted, and it's not even Christmas Eve. Last week didn’t help: a night out with two good friends — let’s call them Max and Paul — turned into a bit of a nightmare. Funny in hindsight? Maybe. Painful at the time? Definitely.

Max showed up from a work Christmas lunch. Already drunk. A solid state of drunk. We head to dinner at a trendy spot and do our annual tradition: share the highs and lows of the year. It’s all very philosophical until Max — powered by wine and questionable opinions — steers the conversation to politics. Always a bad idea.

He launches into a rant about democracy and how certain opinions shouldn’t exist. I, being me, couldn’t sit there quietly. I push back, saying democracy is, by definition, about allowing all opinions. Max doesn’t take it well. He starts shouting in my face, orders the bill, and tries to leave. Paul, the Zen master, mediates, and eventually, Max sits back down. He spills his wine and sulks, but we move on. By the end of dinner, we’d had three bottles of wine, sake, and grappa. I’m already planning my escape.

Paul insists on “just one more drink.” I agree out of guilt. Max is barely functional at this point. We grab a cab and head to a rock bar in north London. It’s one of my favourite spots, but Max is so far gone that the bouncer won’t let him in. No surprise. He gets confrontational. I put him in a cab and send him home. Disaster contained.

Paul and I go for a beer, enjoy the music, and finally head home. It’s 2 a.m., and I can’t get an Uber. I splurge on a fancy tier, and an S-Class pulls up. Classy end to a messy night, or so I thought.

The driver, an Iranian guy, is super friendly. We chat about the world while Paul naps in the back. Just as we near his stop, Paul wakes up. And throws up. Everywhere.

The driver panics. Pulls over. Paul leans out and continues the festivities on the pavement. I’m mortified, apologising profusely. The driver hands Paul tissues and informs me he’ll need a deep clean. Fair. Paul starts arguing about the cleaning fee — classic. No cash, of course. I lose it. Tell him to go home.

We finally get back in the car. I find a cash machine, pay the driver, and beg him to drop me off. He agrees, probably out of pity. I get home angry, disappointed, and smelling faintly of regret.

Moral of the story: By all means, celebrate Christmas, but as in markets, stay nimble and don’t overdo it.

Let’s now read Macro D’s latest thinking before we briefly scan the week’s upcoming calendar. We then check out the 10 most important charts for the upcoming week before scanning the latest output of our asset allocation model.

I will be celebrating Christmas peacefully and only comment if there is any immediate need. I am drafting the outcome of the 2024 portfolio allocation and setting up a new allocation for the coming year. As we will move into a year of heightened political tension I will also write a piece about economic principles, which will hopefully be a good guide as we move into a time of tariffs and their inevitable consequences.

Let’s go!