Attack the Week (ATW)
March 16, 2025
Sunday Thoughts
We have seen 11 weeks this year, but I don’t think any one of those has been boring. On the contrary, we have all witnessed a unique macro landscape driven by various narratives and cross-currents. I have to be honest; I haven’t ever seen such a macro landscape. Macro D said it perfectly a few months ago when he coined the coming environment as the new socio, political, and economic era, where successful macro investing will be determined by playing all three aspects simultaneously.
There are so many opportunities out there and plenty of possible home runs, but the difficulty now, more so than ever, is that very few people have the edge to benefit from it. How can you make sure you are not left behind? First of all, you will need a thorough and time-tested process for analysing markets and taking risks. That’s where experience comes in. At Paper Alfa, you can access more than 2 decades of macro and risk-taking experience. I have shared numerous free educational articles and have introduced paying subscribers to a front-to-back global macro process in the Macrobook series. In addition, I have provided subscribers with technical models, which are running constantly and informing us of momentum and reversal patterns across the global macro universe consisting of more than 250 assets, ranging from single-name equities, rates, FX, and commodities to crypto markets. We are pairing this with a time-tested allocation model, informing us weekly on how to position in US equities and bonds (see the current allocation further below). Our buy-and-hold portfolio for 2025 is up more than 7% YTD as of Friday’s close.
The knowledge sharing is compounded by adding the thoughts of my friend Macro D, a well-respected and one of the most thoughtful investors I know. He has been sharing his overall observations for almost a year now and has provided his FX trade ideas, which have delivered more than 30% of returns on an outright basis.
This place is about educating you on your investing journey and providing you with tools and concepts that have accompanied me successfully in my career. The ever-so-thought-provoking
puts it succinctly.“Wealth demands your protection, but knowledge protects you. Wealth invites envy, while knowledge earns companionship. The more you give away wealth, the less you have. But knowledge grows in sharing. A learned heart inclines toward generosity, while wealth often breeds miserliness.”
If you are interested in exploring what this place has to offer, I would invite you to join the pack. 7-day trials are open.
This is a reminder that you can now also use my models in TradingView scripts, which I made available for subscribers to use on their charts. This is not for free and incurs an additional cost.
If you are interested, ping me an email with your TV username. Note that only paying subscribers will be granted access. No exceptions.
Let’s read Macro D’s latest thinking before briefly scanning the week’s upcoming calendar. We then revisit some charts, which give us some interesting set-ups. As always, we close with a look at the output of our asset allocation model. Let’s see what it decides to do for the upcoming week.
Let’s go!