Attack the Week (ATW)
Sunday Thoughts
After quite an eventful first three weeks in August, the final week should give some relief as there is no particular data on the horizon after the flurry of events during the month. And what a month that was. Was this it or just a precursor of things to come? As always, I will keep an open mind as to how we progress. Back to all-time highs? Sure. I wouldn’t mind retesting the August lows, either. One thing is for sure now: the Fed is going to start cutting rates, which is, under normal conditions, stimulative for the economy. How far they will go is a question for tomorrow, but my sense and the Fed’s track record tells me that they will most likely go further than is warranted. This outcome is multifaceted but will likely propel us into another reflationary boom cycle. There will be plenty of money to be made under that scenario. I will update my thoughts along the way.
No cycle is like another so it will important to observe the expanding possibilities and probabilities. Alongside our views will be our loyal models which have guided us formadibly since I introduced them last year. For those who are not familiar. The momentum and reversal model are informing us of existing momentum patterns across the whole asset universe while reversal indicators give us a warning sign of incoming turns in existing momentum. Are they always right? Of course not. We generally need trending markets in order to crystallise gains. But then, that’s always the case. In ranging market patterns, they obviously send us more noise than true signals. Every week, I update a whole book of charts, consisting of Equity, FX, Single Stocks, Rates, ETFs and Cryptos which highlight the current state of play in its purest form, and without any bias.
Most importantly, if you have skin in the game you will learn a thing or two on the way. This is why I started this community of shared practical knowledge and continued educational content. It’s not only about theory but about how to connect the dots in markets and create a disciplined investment framework to harnest returns while protecting the downside. This is why I have created the Paper Alfa Macro Book (PAMB) series, outlining specific sections of building an investment process.
This and much more are the pillars of this ever evolving space which is now counting more than 3’000 subscribers. If this sounds like a place you would like to belong, I would be thrilled to welcome you with a discounted offer to join the pack.
Let’s now dive into the week ahead with my loyal friend Macro D outlining his current thoughts before we are scanning the upcoming calendar for key events. To finish up I shall look at 10 of the most important charts, which should guide us alongside our gameplans during the week.
Let’s go!