Attack the Week (ATW)

Observations / Calendar / Chart Setups

Sunday Thoughts

I mentioned in Friday’s Chart Book post that the past week felt like moments in April this year. Bonds and equities appear to have regained a more positive correlation, driven by renewed questions about the Fed’s reaction function from hereon, as well as continued concerns about the sustainability of lofty valuations in the tech sector. Crypto is not catching a break in this de-risking environment, further pressuring previously buoyant sentiment, as we would expect a seasonally more risk-friendly environment at this point in the year.

Friday turned out to be a stick save of a day, with risk bouncing in the second half of the European trading day. NQ and ES, once again, managed to hold the 50 ema as they have shown the previous Friday, while still maintaining a positive momentum reading when looking at my momentum model.

The intra-day model (shown below) highlighted an intra-day reversal opportunity on Friday (NQ in the chart below), which was very well timed. For an introduction and a guide on how this model works, please see the guide.

A reminder that you can use my trading models in TradingView scripts, which I made available for subscribers to use on their charts. This is not free and incurs an additional cost. These are my momentum, reversal and intra-day models I am often referencing.

If you are interested, ping me an email with your TV username. Note that only paying subscribers will be granted access. No exceptions.

An April-type environment should see higher corporate spreads, especially in high-yield, which has seen spreads compressing to new 2-year lows before jumping by around 25 bps more recently. I would keep an eye on this to see whether the ongoing volatility and credit contagion continue to stress markets.

Yield Curves have started to steepen again, with 5-30s creeping above 100 bps once again. It is also essential to keep the Japanese curve in mind, which has previously led the curve cycle higher this year.

SFRZ6 (December 2026) has formed a double top and has now struggled to regain the area above the 100 moving average. If December is uncertain, the terminal rate should also rightly be questioned.

The Dollar has recently been weakening again after tagging the 200 moving average, driven mainly by political pressure and a seemingly weakening US administration.

Gold & Silver have had an amazing run in September and October before seeing sharp declines. We have since bounced again, only to see another sharp fall over the latter parts of last week. I am tracking the Gold/Silver ratio as shown below, which has fallen since April (Silver outperforming Gold) and has now formed a double bottom. A higher ratio would, all things being equal, perform better in a risk-off environment from here.

Bitcoin is under continued pressure, with the year’s lows below 80k now looking as the next firm support zone.

With everything going on, the Paper Alfa 2025 portfolio is still up 23.2% YTD. Long may it continue, although I am already planning the 2026 portfolio, which will see a few changes.

As mentioned before, we aim to build strategies that not only survive but also thrive in unusual regimes. If you are interested in joining the pack, I am still running a 20% discount on all new subscriptions in November.

Let’s now read some Macro D’s latest thoughts on the BoJ and some FX thoughts before we analyse the weekly calendar and interpret the output of our weekly asset allocation model. Have a wonderful week ahead. It’s going to be fun!