Attack the Week (ATW)
Christmas Week / BoJ Review / Weekly Calendar / Charts / Asset Allocation Model Update
Sunday Thoughts
This is it, the last ATW of the year. And what a year it was. Performance across our buy-and-hold and asset allocation models has been positive (pending a disaster in the coming week). Aside from that, this place has hopefully provided you with some education, thought pieces, and insights.
I am delighted how this year has panned out for me, but it wasn’t easy. The first quarter and April opened a can of uncertainties that still linger, but markets have long forgotten them. Macro investing is never linear, but it is often defined by how you act at extremes. Politics replaced economics more often than many of us would like over the past year. Certainty was scarce, conviction was tested, and patience was frequently punished before being rewarded. That’s where a well-rounded process proves its worth - one of the cornerstones of Paper Alfa’s offering.
What many readers may not fully appreciate is the depth of lived experience that sits behind the words published in this space. Between Macro D and me, there is a combined market experience measured in decades, spanning multiple cycles, crises, regimes, and recoveries. This year in particular, Macro D chose to share his thinking exclusively within this space — not as commentary from the sidelines, but as reflections forged in real time, under real pressure. I am very grateful for his excellent contribution.
These are not armchair opinions. We are not desk-chair pundits optimising for clicks or engagement. We are active participants in global markets, responsible for capital, risk, and outcomes. Between the two of us, the capital represented runs into tens of digits. That does not confer infallibility — markets ensure no one ever is — but it does give our views weight, because being wrong carries real consequences. Opinions expressed are shaped not just by theory, but by responsibility, accountability, and skin in the game.
That distinction matters. In a world flooded with hot takes and empty certainty, weight comes from exposure — from knowing that being wrong costs something real. The purpose of Paper Alfa has always been to offer thinking that reflects that reality: measured, honest, and grounded in experience rather than opinion.
If that kind of perspective resonates with you — if you are curious to think alongside professionals who value process over prediction and humility over bravado — then I invite you to become part of this community.
For now, wherever you are, and however you celebrate, I wish you and your loved ones a peaceful, joyful, and restorative Christmas. May the coming days bring rest, peace, and renewed energy.
Thank you for being part of this journey.
Let’s now read some Macro D’s detailed thoughts on the BoJ and its implications before we analyse the weekly calendar, look at some interesting chart setups and interpret the output of our weekly asset allocation model.
Let’s go one more time and finish strongly!