Attack the Week (ATW)
Sunday Thoughts
Thank you to everyone who checked in and extended their best wishes over the past few days. Life throws surprises at you, and they are not always positive ones. This can cause you to be in disarray and confusion as you deal with reality, one day at a time.
The normality in negative events is that the internal scenario building is very often very far removed from how reality actually pans out. This is mostly related to the human mind going off on all sorts of different strains of thought but also the simple fact that we just don’t know.
Markets are no different in this regard. Politically driven markets, such as those in France or Mexico now, are a good case study. I have read a few notes from banks and they all draw different scenarios as to what is going to happen. This reminds me of the events in Fukushima in 2011 when, within 48 hours, any bank sell-side researcher became an expert in nuclear plant infrastructure. The truth always transpires differently. While this implies huge alpha opportunities, one will have to have a particular edge in this field of investigation. In politics, I have zero edge. I leave it to those who know. I merely observe the variety of opinions. If an outcome becomes way too extremely populated, it’s often wise to bet on the other side. This served me well in 2016’s Brexit and the US presidential election.
Let’s see what the week has in store for us. We start with some of Macro D’s observations before scanning through the events calendar. We finish with some charts for the week we should all be considering. I have also added a NEW section, “Trade Corner”, which includes a few trade ideas curated by Macro D.
Enjoy, and have a great week ahead. Bless you all.