Friday Paper Charts

October 18, 2024

I get a lot of requests and questions about concrete trading ideas. This place I have created here is to educate and guide you with a few concepts and primers so that you can develop ideas by yourself. I get it; it’s easy to follow someone else’s views. But what’s the point? If you want to do it, just outsource your investing to a professional or robo advisor. I have said it many times. I am not here to give financial advice. I am here to share concepts and ideas and educate. That’s my mission. I wouldn’t follow someone’s ideas without doing the research for myself. Many professional traders out there just follow what sell-side researchers tell them to do. Guess what? Their lifespan in the business isn’t very long.

However, I have made 2 of my technical models available to everyone, which is the bulk of the Friday Chart Book post. Rather than voodoo you with some shooting-out-of-the-hip trading ideas, as many in fintwit or substack bombard you with, I leave the charts, and the models tell you the story. It’s all there from start to finish. You can see the signals nicely overlapped with pricing history. There is no second-guessing or back-filling of signals; you get everything.

While the models give you daily signals on momentum and reversals across the asset universe, I have also made some longer-term strategies available. The most recent publication of the Macroscope series showcased an asset allocation model, which I have shown to show very decent results since 1977. I am using this model for myself, and it has helped me tremendously in assessing where beta performance is headed. I opened up this model this week for paying subscribers. You can check it out below. Again, this is not intended as advice but merely a proven concept that has worked so far, and you can use it as a guide to developing something similar, hopefully, yourself.

Now, back to markets. I asked myself this week, what if the “trump trade” happens before the election even is a fact? Betting markets have increased Trump’s probability substantially this week, although I would urge caution as those markets can be easily manipulated with a few huge tickets. Reflexivity, however, seems to have taken hold, and some of those trades seem to have entered the market. I have no edge in anticipating the election, and I think it's stupid to bet on it unless you really are in the deep end in knowing what some of the key swing states will bring. I don’t, but I am a keen observer. My view is that the election is probably way closer than betting markets make you believe. So I’d be careful to jump on a wagon straight away. Take the previous elections as an example; there is plenty of money to be made once we know the winner and the Congress.

I have asked my dear friend Macro D to analyse the election, and he has put together a 3-part analysis, which I will share over the coming weeks as we near November 5th. I am really looking forward to it.

As far as the history of the election is concerned, check out the following charts.

Equity

Source: Bloomberg

Rates

Source: Bloomberg

USD

Source: Bloomberg

Commodity (Oil)

Source: Bloomberg

It would all indicate what I said before, plenty of money to be made after the fact. Play it simple, and stay nimble.

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By now, most of you will be familiar with the models and their signals. If not, please study the guide I have published. I would highly recommend you go through these notes and guides if you are new to the pack.

Further below, the full book of 250+ charts covers the whole asset spectrum from equities, bonds, commodities, FX, and Crypto to give you the most extensive view. On average, it will generally provide a good 5-10 set-ups on a weekly basis.

A reminder that you can now also use my models in TradingView scripts, which I made available for subscribers to use on their charts for a fee. If you are interested, ping me an email with your TV username. Note that only paying subscribers will be granted access. No exceptions. It’s taking time to set everyone up so I will limit the amount of users going forward.

Let’s also read my friend Macro D’s recent thoughts on markets before engaging our scanning eyes across the multitude of charts that I have updated for you below.